(6) Philadelphia (41-41, 36-44-2 ATS) at (3) Orlando (59-23, 49-32-1 ATS)
Two teams entering the postseason on a downturn get together when the Magic play host to the 76ers at Amway Arena in the opener of a best-of-7 series.
Orlando pounded Charlotte 98-73 as a 3½-point home favorite Wednesday, snapping a three-game SU skid and a five-game ATS slide. The Magic went just 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) in their last five starts, blowing a chance to catch Boston for the No. 2 seed. Orlando averaged 101 ppg in the regular season but reached the century mark just once in its last nine games. During that stretch, the Magic were held to 95 points or less seven times, including four games in the 80s.
Philadelphia edged No. 1 overall seed Cleveland 111-110 in overtime Wednesday to reach .500 for the regular season, but the Cavaliers rested LeBron James and three other starters, and the 76ers failed to cover as a three-point road chalk. Prior to that win, Philly had lost six in a row (1-5 ATS), including road setbacks to non-playoff teams New Jersey, Charlotte and Toronto. For the season, the Sixers have barely outscored their opposition (97.4-97.3), and they averaged about two buckets less than their opponents on the road (101.0-97.1).
Orlando is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, winning all three contests this season. The Magic notched a 98-88 home win as a five-point chalk in early November, then won and cashed twice on the road, including a 106-100 win giving 1½ points on Feb. 28. Also, the Magic have posted three consecutive double-digit home wins over the Sixers. The host is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series battles, but the underdog is on a 23-11 ATS run.
The Magic were 32-9 at Amway Arena in the regular season (23-18 ATS), while Philly was 24-17 on the highway (18-23 ATS).
Orlando got past the opening round of the playoffs last year for the first time since 1996, but it lost to Detroit in five games in the conference semifinals, one series after Philly fell to the Pistons in six games in the first round.
Along with their current 1-5 ATS skid, the Magic are on pointspread dips of 0-6 against the Atlantic Division and 0-4 going on three or more days of rest. However, they finished the season with the league’s second-best ATS mark, trailing only the top-seeded Cavaliers.
The 76ers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 starts against Southeast Division foes, but the ATS trends are all negative from there, including 0-5 overall (all in the East), 0-4 after a non-cover, 0-5 after yielding more than 100 points, 1-7 after a break of three days or more, 1-5 on the highway, 1-4 in first-round playoff games and 1-4 as a playoff pup.
The under for Orlando is on tears of 6-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 8-2 at home and 22-8 with the Magic a home chalk. On the flip side, the over for Philadelphia is on rolls of 6-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 6-0 against the Eastern Conference, 6-0 with the Sixers a ‘dog and 15-7 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
(5) Atlanta (43-39, 40-40-2 ATS) at (4) Miami (47-35, 43-38-1 ATS)
The Heat return to the playoffs after a one-year absence, opening on the road at Philips Arena against the Southeast Division rival Hawks, who are in the postseason for a second straight year after an eight-year drought.
Miami finished the season on a three-game ATS streak (2-1 SU), beating Detroit 102-96 in overtime Wednesday as a two-point home underdog to end the regular season. However, the Heat dropped seven of their final 12 starts (7-5 ATS). Miami has a narrow scoring advantage over its foes on the season, putting up 98.3 ppg and allowing 98.0, and on the highway, the Heat have averaged 95.8 ppg and given up 99.5.
Atlanta dropped a meaningless game to Memphis in its finale Wednesday, ending a four-game winning streak with a 98-90 setback and falling just short of cashing as 7½-point road ‘dog. The Hawks dropped their last three ATS decisions and finished the season on a 3-8 pointspread skid. Atlanta has put up 98.1 ppg for the season and has been a tick above that number at home, at 98.7 ppg. Defensively, the Hawks allowed 96.5 ppg overall but just 93 ppg at Philips Arena.
Atlanta went 3-1 SU in four meetings with Miami this season, with the two teams splitting the money, and the ATS winner has alternated in each of the last five clashes. The clubs actually squared off Tuesday, with the Hawks posting an 81-79 home victory and Miami cashing as a 9½-point underdog in a game Heat star Dwyane Wade sat out to rest for the playoffs. The Heat are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 clashes with the Hawks, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Atlanta.
Miami, which finished with the NBA’s worst record last year, went one-and-one in the playoffs in 2007, getting swept by the Bulls in the opening round one year after winning the NBA title. Atlanta pushed Boston to seven games in the first round last year, including going 3-0 SU and ATS at home in its first playoff appearances since 1999.
The Hawks are 31-10 at home (22-18-1 ATS), while Miami lost 26 of 41 roadies (20-20-1 ATS).
The Heat are on ATS upticks of 6-2 overall, 5-1 in the East, 4-1 in roadies and 4-1 after a spread-cover, but they also carry negative ATS streaks of 3-13 after a break of three days or more, 2-6-2 in first-round playoff action, 8-17-1 on Sunday and 20-42-3 after a SU win.
The Hawks are on an 8-3-1 ATS surge as a home chalk and are on a 5-0 ATS run laying less than five points. But they are also on spread-covering slides of 2-6 overall, 2-6 against the East, 0-4 against winning teams, 1-5 at home and 1-4 after a non-cover.
The over has hit in five of Miami’s last seven games and is 5-1 in Atlanta’s last six as a favorite. Otherwise, though, the under for the Heat is on stretches of 5-0 against winning teams, 7-2 with Miami a playoff pup and 5-2 after a SU win, and the under for the Hawks is on rolls of 11-5 at home, 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 in Southeast Division play.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total stayed low in all four meetings this year, and the under is 5-1 in the last six contests in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(8) Utah (48-34, 39-43 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (65-17, 43-39 ATS)
The Lakers begin their quest for a return trip to the NBA Finals when they open the postseason by hosting the Jazz at Staples Center in a rematch of a Western Conference semifinal series last year.
Los Angeles and Utah closed the regular season against each other Tuesday, with the Lakers rolling to a 125-112 victory as a six-point home favorite in a meaningless game for both squads. L.A. finished with the second-best best record in the NBA and finished 11 games better than any other team in the Western Conference. Phil Jackson’s team enters the postseason on a 7-1 SU run (5-3 ATS) and has won six straight home games and 13 of the last 14 at Staples Center, going only 7-7 ATS.
Utah struggled big-time down the stretch, losing seven of its last nine SU, while going just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games. The Jazz also went 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven road games and 2-9 SU and ATS in their last 11 as a visitor. The Jazz have given up an average of more than 110 ppg in their last 10 games, and for the season, they surrendered more than 106 ppg on the road.
These teams met in the second round of the playoffs last year, with Los Angeles winning the series in six games (3-2-1 ATS). This year, the Lakers also went 3-1 SU and ATS against the Jazz, and they’re 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meeting with Utah and 8-1 ATS in the last nine in Hollywood. Including the playoffs, the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine in this rivalry, and the host is 13-4-1 ATS in the last 18 series battles.
Utah has made the playoffs for the third straight year, getting beyond Round 1 in each of the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Lakers have reached the playoffs each of the last three seasons and 31 times in the last 33 years going back to 1977. After getting bounced in the first round in 2006 and 2007, they made it back to the NBA Finals last year, losing to Boston in six games. On their run to the Finals, Kobe Bryant and Co. swept the Nuggets in the first round, going 4-0 ATS.
For the season, the Lakers are 36-5 in their building but just 20-21 ATS. The Jazz were 15-26 on the road (17-24 ATS), including 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS in 13 road games against Western Conference playoff teams.
L.A. has cashed in five straight first-round games since 2007 and is on additional ATS streaks of 4-1 overall (all against the Western Conference), 4-0 as a favorite, 5-1 when getting three or more days off and 8-3 after a SU win. However, the Lakers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Sunday games and 7-16 ATS when laying 11 points or more, and they failed to cover in each of their last four playoff games when favored last season.
The Jazz are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 first-round postseason contests and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when after getting three or more days off. After that, though, the ATS trends are all negative, including 2-10 overall, 1-6 on the highway, 2-14 as an underdog, 2-9 versus the Western Conference and 1-4 against the Pacific Division.
Utah is on “over” runs of 8-2 overall, 7-0 on the road, 6-0 against winning teams and 39-19-2 as an underdog. However, the under is 17-8 in its last 25 first-round playoff games and 5-2 in its last seven on Sunday. For the Lakers, the over is on streaks of 4-1 overall and 4-1 against the Northwest Division, but the under is 8-2 in its last 10 at home, 16-5 in its last 21 as a favorite and 7-0-1 on Sunday.
Lastly, the last six Jazz-Lakers battles have hurdled the total, and the over is 4-0 in the last four clashes in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
(7) New Orleans (49-33, 35-45-2 ATS) at (2) Denver (54-28, 44-37-1 ATS)
The Nuggets, who made a big late-season surge to seize the Northwest Division title and No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, open the postseason at the Pepsi Center against the Hornets, who struggled late and fell to the seventh seed.
Denver got pounded in its regular-season finale Wednesday at Portland, losing 104-76 as an 8½-point underdog, but it was a meaningless game, and the Nuggets treated it as such. Despite the setback, Denver finished the season on a 14-3 SU tear (10-7 ATS), cracking the 100-point barrier in every start except the loss to the Blazers. For the season, the Nuggets averaged 104.3 ppg and allowed 100.9, but they had a slightly bigger cushion at home, putting up 107.8 and yielding 100.7.
New Orleans fell at San Antonio 105-98 in overtime Wednesday, but covered the number as a nine-point underdog to halt a 1-3 ATS skid. The Hornets went just 2-6 SU (3-5 ATS) in their last eight starts, including 2-4 SU (3-3 ATS) against playoff teams. New Orleans averaged 95.8 ppg on the year, just a shade better than its opponents (94.3), though the Hornets were outscored by a similar margin on the road, averaging 95.3 ppg and allowing 96.9. In the last five games, New Orleans has given up 97.6 ppg and scored 91.6 ppg.
These teams split their four meetings this season, with each winning once at home and once on the road SU and ATS. Most recently, Denver prevailed 101-88 as a four-point road pup on March 25, ending a 4-0 ATS run by the favorite in this rivalry. Still, the Hornets have covered in five the last seven clashes overall and are on a 7-2 ATS roll in Denver. Finally, the road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
The Nuggets went 33-8 at home (23-17-1 ATS), while New Orleans 21-20 as a visitor (16-24-1 ATS).
The Hornets bowed out to the Spurs in seven games in last year’s Western Conference semifinals, and the Nuggets were swept in four games SU and ATS by the Lakers in the first round. Denver hasn’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 1994, losing six consecutive series and going 4-23 SU during this stretch.
The Nuggets are on positive ATS streaks of 8-3 against the West, 4-1 laying points, 29-9-1 as a chalk of five to 10½ points and 7-3 against winning teams. However, they are on a 3-15 ATS plunge in their last 18 first-round playoff games and are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 starts following a non-cover.
The Hornets have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference quarterfinal games, but they are otherwise on pointspread dives of 7-17 as an underdog, 6-16 as a road pup, 7-19-1 after a spread-cover, 2-6 after a break of three or more days and 1-5 against the Northwest Division.
The over for Denver is on rolls of 6-2 at home and 7-3 with the Nuggets favored, but the under has gone 18-3 in Denver’s last 21 conference quarterfinal starts. The under for New Orleans is on streaks of 14-5 overall, 8-1-1 against teams with a winning home record and 7-1-1 when the Hornets are a playoff ‘dog. Finally, the last two regular-season meetings between these two teams stayed low following a 3-0 “over” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (8-5) at Chicago Cubs (7-4)
The Cubs and Cardinals wrap up a four-game series with a nationally televised battle at Wrigley Field, with southpaw Ted Lilly (2-0, 3.86 ERA) slated to toe the slab for Chicago against Todd Wellemeyer (1-1, 4.50).
One day after a late-inning two-run Alfonso Soriano home run lifted the Cubs over St. Louis, Chicago got another dramatic two-run blast on Saturday, this one from Aramis Ramirez in the bottom of the 11th inning to give the host a 7-5 victory. The Cubs are 57-27 in their last 84 at home, 9-3 in their last 12 on Sunday, 6-2 in their last eight against St. Louis and 19-8 in their last 27 Wrigley Field showdowns with the Cardinals.
Despite losing the last two games in this series, St. Louis is still 7-3 in its last 10. Also, going back to last season, the Redbirds are on solid runs of 14-5 overall, 5-2 against Central division foes, 4-0 against left-handed starters and 21-9 on Saturday. However, Tony LaRussa’s squad is now 6-16 in its last 22 road games.
Lilly is coming off a 4-0 home victory over Colorado, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He finished allowing just the single hit and two walks while striking out eight, a much sharper performance than his first outing when he yielded five runs and eight hits over five innings in an 11-6 win at Houston. Chicago is unbeaten in Lilly’s last six starts overall, and with the lefty on the hill the Cubbies are on further runs of 22-8 overall, 20-8 at home, 6-1 versus St. Louis, 12-2 against winning teams, 5-0 as a favorite and 5-0 versus the N.L. Central.
Lilly is 6-2 with a 2.99 ERA in 11 career starts against the Cardinals, going 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA in five outings last season. Lilly has pitched at least six innings in each of his last 10 starts versus St. Louis, giving up three earned runs or fewer in eight of those contests.
Like Lilly, Wellemeyer bounced back nicely from a poor 2009 debut, scattering seven hits and a run over seven innings en route to a 2-1 road win at Arizona. Despite that effort, St. Louis is just 3-6 in the right-hander’s last nine trips to the mound, even though he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of those nine contests. The Redbirds have also dropped four straight Wellemeyer starts on Sunday, but they’re 4-0 in his last four as a road underdog.
Wellemeyer made four starts against the Cubs last year, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each contest. He’s 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against Chicago, and he went 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA in 14 road starts last season.
The under is 6-0 in Lilly’s last six home starts, 6-2 in Wellemeyer’s last eight overall and 4-0 in Wellemeyer’s last four on the road.
For St. Louis, the over is on streaks of 13-3 overall (5-0 last five), 5-0 on the road, 9-2 as a road underdog and 10-3 against Central division rivals, while the over for Chicago is on stretches of 5-1-1 overall (all at home), 5-0 against the N.L. Central. Also, six of the last eight meetings between these teams at Wrigley Field – including all three in this series – have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
